COVID-19 UPDATE FOR NIGERIA

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It is now 313 days since the first COVID-19 case was reported in Nigeria. As at January 06, 2021 the confirmed cases are 97,303 with 1,324 fatalities, however, 77,299 have recovered.

Based on equal days forecast, by November 15, 2021, Nigeria’s confirmed COVID-19 cases are forecast to be:

1,258,828 from grafted (spline) polynomial model without knots

954,792 from grafted (spline) polynomial model with knots

4,205,342 from smooth spline model

337,355 from ARIMA model (95% lower confidence band)

918,625 from ARIMA model (95% upper confidence band)

219,063 from quadratic polynomial model


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